IS THE Y2K BUG A HOAX?
I listened to a PBS broadcast on 4/8/99 in which speakers speculated on digital combinations that might confuse computers before the end of the date of 12/31/99. I then recalled the fact that computers calculate using binary arithmetic (as an undergraduate at Loras College, I once built a transistor binary counter - that was 1967). It is only in communicating with those humans using base-10 arithmetic and the Western calendar that potential errors will occur.
For example: an old program for an 8-bit processor might include only 2 base-10 digits for the variable YEAR. Let us count in binary:
Base-10 Binary
0 0
1 1
2 10
3 11
4 100
5 101
6 110
7 111
8 1000
and so on. You need 4 bits to count to 15, 5 bits to count to 31, 6 bits to count to 63, and 7 bits to count to 127.
The year "99" in binary is written 1100011 (64 + 32 + 2 + 1 = 99). A 7-bit word used to write 99 has lots of space for binary representation of base-10 100 ( = 1100100)!!!
What we have here is not a Y2K problem, we have a Y1111111 problem (2027). Any binary counter that can handle the year "99" can easily deal with the year "100." The only problems occur during I/O functions in which base-10 values and converted to or from binary. Even elapsed time will be properly calculated as a clock ticks through midnight of 12/31/99-1/1/00! Try it on your $ 3 digital watch (actually, I use a $20 Casio with countdown timer, stop watch and lap counter functions).
Is the "Y2K Bug" a hoax perpetrated by the Dilberts of the world
for the sake of demonstrating to the rest of us that we are as clueless as the
pointy-headed boss?
Is this the ultimate "Revenge of the Nerds"?
Will hackers (or Systems Administrators) electronically invade and destroy my
computer now that I am blowing the whistle on their little game?
I love practical jokes and have been responsible for several. I salute
the authors of this hoax and declare them the Grand Champions -
and I hereby retire from participation in further pranks (until an irresistible opportunity
again presents itself, that is.)
The only computer program I use that will not function after 12/31/99 is a gravity data processing program that calculates gravity variations due to earth tides. This excellent program, written by Dr. Shawn Biehler of The University of California, was restricted to 2 decimal digits input for "YEAR" because it was first used on IBM mainframes with which humans communicated via 80-column punched cards. No doubt recent versions of this program (that run on machines with more bits per byte) have been updated so that positions of the sun and moon can be calculated into the next century. So - unless a computer program must calculate astronomical positions, the only Y2K bugs are during I/O. Time will tick on right through the transition without digital difficulties so long as the counting is done in binary - the only way computers know how to count.
If this analysis contains fatal errors or illegal operations, please be so kind
as to point them out to me.
This essay has not undergone peer review.
Respectfully submitted -